Will traffic from search engines to your website drop 25% by 2026 as a result of the rise of generative AI answer engines? That’s what Gartner, a technological research and consulting firm, is predicting.

Why we care. SEO and PPC are incredibly valuable. Search traffic is what can lead to revenue and profit (whether via converting that traffic to leads, sales, or whatever type of conversion matters to your brand).

The rise of generative AI has raised legitimate concerns that Google’s Search Generative Experience (and other AI-driven answer engines) may “steal” traffic that would have gone to your website in the past or significantly drive up costs for advertisers. Many also believe that ChatGPT is already stealing market share from Google.

The prediction. Gartner believes people will turn to generational AI conversational assistants (e.g., ChatGPT, Claude) rather than traditional search engines (e.g., Google). If true, this would mean a huge shift in organic and paid search marketing strategies. Gartner predicts:

• “By 2026, traditional search engine volume will drop 25%, with search marketing losing market share to AI chatbots and other virtual agents.”

But. A prediction (this one was shared in a press release today based on full research that requires a subscription) is just a guess. Gartner’s predictions are typically informed, but they’re still best guesses.

Respected analyst firms are rarely called out when they’re wrong – because people rarely go back and check. As one recent example, Gartner made a surprising prediction that 50% of consumers would limit engagement or abandon social media by 2025 – but later walked it back a bit.

2028 prediction. Gartner previously predicted that “organic search traffic will decrease by 50% or more as consumers embrace generative AI-powered search.” This was based in part on findings from a survey (of 299 consumers in August 2023) that found:

• 79% of respondents expected to use AI-enhanced search within the next year.
• 70% of consumers had at least some trust in generative AI search results.

For that prediction, Gartner advised brands to prepare for disruption:

• “Marketing leaders whose brands rely on SEO should consider allocating resources to testing other channels in order to diversify,” said Emily Weiss, senior principal researcher at Gartner.

Not guaranteed. It may turn out that Gartner is right – we’ll know for sure in 2026. But I highly suggest reading Gartner predictions in the same way you should read a ranking factor correlation study published by an SEO tool/platform. It’s entertaining, perhaps informative or even useful directionally, but not unimpeachable.